How EV-ready is the UK?

Did you know, almost ten million plug-in hybrid and electric cars and vans were sold worldwide during 2023, according to the International Energy Agency[1]? That’s almost five times more than in 2018, but five times less than the projected volumes for 2035 as global markets set deadlines to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles. There are big changes on the horizon – and adoption can differ significantly between markets.

The 2024 Ayvens Mobility Guide is aimed at demystifying that landscape for fleet decision-makers – especially if they’re operating across borders. It’s a comprehensive analysis of market readiness, ranking 47 countries by how ready they are to transition from fossil fuels to battery power, while highlighting the most important factors for businesses

The maturity of each country’s EV market was assessed based on six unevenly weighted criteria, with a maximum score of 100 points. These were:

• EV adoption (25 points): Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations as a share of the overall market, with extra points for BEVs.
• Charging infrastructure (20 points): The quality, quantity, and ease of use of the country’s charging networks, compared to the number of plug-ins on the road.
• Tax and regulations (20 points): Building on the LeasePlan EV Readiness Index, 37 countries were assessed for their taxation framework and EV-friendly regulations.
• Vehicle availability (15 points): The number of unique plug-in car and van models which sold at least one unit during 2023.
• Total cost of ownership (TCO) (15 points): How competitive are EV TCOs (over a 48 month, 120,000km/74,500-mile term) compared to combustion engine models?
• Sustainable energy supply (5 points): The carbon intensity of the electrical grid used to charge the vehicles, and the share of zero-carbon and renewable generation.

Those scores were then used to divide markets into three groups:

• Developed (60+ points): An established market for BEVs and PHEVs, or favourable conditions for near-future growth.
• Transitioning (40-59 points): Showing a strong interest in electrification, but with bottlenecks slowing adoption.
• Emerging (0-39 points): Still held back by significant challenges with vehicle affordability, availability or charging.

The global EV market continued to change during 2023, influenced by geopolitical trade tensions, political change, price wars and the rise of Chinese OEMs, who accounted for 21.7% of Europe’s EV registrations, according to ACEA [2].

Key trends outlined in the report include:

• A maturing global market: Western and Northern European countries continued to spearhead the EV transition, but others are evolving quickly. Portugal and Switzerland now rank as developed markets, bringing the total to 13, while Southern and Eastern Europe and Thailand were notable for recent advances.
• Norway continues to lead: With a plug-in share of 90.4% for new cars and 30.5% for vans, widespread charging infrastructure and strong incentives, Norway scored 82 points and ranked as the world’s most developed market. The Netherlands came in second at 80 points – a 12%-point rise on the 2023 report, recognising that falling interest rates and energy prices have increased the TCO advantage for BEVs.
• BEVs are often cheaper to run: BEV TCOs increased year-on-year in 15 out of 28 European countries included in the report, compared to data from the 2023 Ayvens Mobility Guide. However, they are still cheaper per mile than a petrol or diesel vehicle in 13 markets and achieved parity in another two.
• Charging infrastructure is growing: The EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) requires at least one charging point per ten EVs, and 150kW rapid chargers every 60km along major routes [3]. All of the Member States ranked as ‘developed’ EV markets scored higher for infrastructure than in last year’s guide.

The UK ranked as a developed market in this year’s report, rising from 11th to 10th place overall following a 3%-point rise on 2023.

Fleets have several factors to be optimistic about...

• Plenty of choice (15/15): A total of 134 unique BEV and PHEV models were sold in the UK during 2023 – which means fleets can often find a vehicle that suits their operational needs.
• Generous incentives (14/20): BEVs are exempt from Vehicle Excise Duty (road tax) until April 2025, while fleets benefit from low company car tax rates and capital allowances, as well as grant funding of up to £5,000 for vans.
• The charging network is growing (12/20): More than 16,000 public charging points were installed during 2023, according to Zap-Map – growing the total network by 44%[4]. There are ten every 100km (62 miles) of UK roads, and one per 23.1 EVs.

…however, there are some minor bottlenecks too.

• A close business case for BEVs (3/15): UK fleets have some of the lowest BEV TCOs in Europe, but not enough to be cheaper than petrol or diesel vehicles. Per-mile costs increased for both last year and are still at parity.
• Stagnant BEV market share (16/25): One in six (16.5%) new cars and one in 17 (5.9%) of new vans was electric during 2023, which is almost unchanged compared to 2022 [5]. Most financial incentives are only available to businesses, who accounted for 81% of BEV and 78% of PHEV registrations[6].
• The grid could be greener (3/5): Vehicles charged from the UK grid are using electricity with a carbon intensity of 200grams per kWh, with 65% low-carbon and 47% renewable generation. That compares to 27-52g/kWh in Norway.

To find out more, download the 2024 Ayvens Mobility Guide here.

At ALD Automotive | LeasePlan UK, we recognise that electrification can seem daunting for fleets. Our expert team has helped thousands of businesses navigate this fast-changing regulatory and technological landscape, and we’re here to support your next steps. Contact us to find out more.

[1] IEA. (n.d.). Global EV Data Explorer. [online] Available at: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-ev-data-explorer [Accessed 15 Jul. 2024].

[2] ACEA. (2024). Fact sheet: EU-China vehicle trade 2024. [online] Available at: https://www.acea.auto/fact/fact-sheet-eu-china-vehicle-trade-2024/ [Accessed 15 Jul. 2024].

[3] European Council. (2023). Alternative fuels infrastructure: Council adopts new law for more recharging and refuelling stations across Europe. [online] Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/07/25/alternative-fuels-infrastructure-council-adopts-new-law-for-more-recharging-and-refuelling-stations-across-europe/ [Accessed 15 Jul. 2024].

[4] Zap-Map. (n.d.). How many charging points. [online] Available at: https://www.zap-map.com/ev-stats/how-many-charging-points [Accessed 15 Jul. 2024].

[5] SMMT. (2024). December 2023 new car registrations. [online] Available at: https://media.smmt.co.uk/december-2023-new-car-registrations/ [Accessed 15 Jul. 2024].

[6] Department for Transport. (2024). VEH1153: Vehicles registered for the first time by body type, fuel type and keepership (private and company): Great Britain and United Kingdom. [online] Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/66436867/veh1153.ods [Accessed 15 Jul. 2024].